Exploring Cascading Disaster Risk During Complex Emergencies: Chemical Industry Disaster Risk Assessment in the Aftermath of the Kakhovka Dam Bombing in Ukraine.

OBJECTIVE: This risk assessment aims to investigate the analysis of cascading disaster risks from the perspective of the chemical industry and public health subsequent to the Kakhovka dam bombing in Ukraine. METHOD: The study utilized a modified observational cross-sectional risk assessment method to assess disaster risk. The method involved identifying the location of chemical factories, determining flooded or at-risk factories, analyzing the type and frequency of chemical hazards, assessing population exposure, and plotting a disaster risk metric. Data on chemical industries and flood extent were collected from open-source secondary data. RESULTS: The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in June 2023 led to severe flooding, placing 42 000 individuals at risk. The analysis identified four chemical factories, with 1 affected by flooding and 3 at risk. The overall risk assessment indicated a high likelihood and severe consequences, including loss of life, environmental contamination, and property damage. CONCLUSION: The combination of complex emergencies and high-risk chemical facilities in Kherson Oblast poses a significant risk of a chemical industry disaster. The interplay between compound and cascading risks during complex emergencies amid the current war further exacerbates the situation, leading to the devastation and destruction of the environment to the detriment of life, and aligns with the characterization of ecocide.

The first 2 months of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Yemen: Analysis of the surveillance data.

INTRODUCTION: Yemen was one of the last countries in the world to declare the first case of the pandemic, on 10 April 2020. Fear and concerns of catastrophic outcomes of the epidemic in Yemen were immediately raised, as the country is facing a complex humanitarian crisis. The purpose of this report is to describe the epidemiological situation in Yemen during the first 2 months of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. METHODS: We analyzed the epidemiological data from 18 February to 05 June 2020, including the 2 months before the confirmation of the first case. We included in our analysis the data from 10 out of 23 governorates of Yemen, located in southern and eastern part of the country. RESULTS: A total of 469 laboratory confirmed, 552 probable and 55 suspected cases with onset of symptoms between 18 February and 5 June 2020 were reported through the surveillance system. The median age among confirmed cases was 46 years (range: 1-90 years), and 75% of the confirmed cases were male. A total of 111 deaths were reported among those with confirmed infection. The mean age among those who died was 53 years (range: 14-88 years), with 63% of deaths (n = 70) occurring in individuals under the age 60 years. A total of 268 individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were hospitalized (57%), among whom there were 95 in-hospital deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The surveillance strategy implemented in the first 2 months of the SARS CoV 2 in the southern and eastern governorates of Yemen, captured mainly severe cases. The mild and moderate cases were not self-reported to the health facilities and surveillance system due to limited resources, stigma, and other barriers. The mortality appeared to be higher in individuals aged under 60 years, and most fatalities occurred in individuals who were in critical condition when they reached the health facilities. It is unclear whether the presence of other acute comorbidities contributed to the high death rate among SARS-CoV-2 cases. The findings only include the southern and eastern part of the country, which is home to 31% of the total population of Yemen, as the data from the northern part of the country was inaccessible for analysis. This makes our results not generalizable to the rest of the country.

Performance of the standardised MedDRA® queries for case retrieval in the French spontaneous reporting database.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of Standardised MedDRA® Queries (SMQs) in adverse drug reaction (ADR) identification. METHODS: ADR cases included in the last complete year of the French Pharmacovigilance database for research were used to test four SMQs (narrow and broad): agranulocytosis, demyelination, osteonecrosis and psychosis. Reference cases were identified by free-text search and validated by two authors. Sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of narrow and broad searches of each SMQ were calculated and reported as proportions with 95% exact confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Among 20,830 cases reported in 2009, 337 validated cases of agranulocytosis, 17 of demyelination, 52 of osteonecrosis and 230 of psychosis were included in the reference sets. Estimations of SMQ narrow search performance were as follows: Se 62.9% (95% CI 57.5-68.1) and PPV 46.8% (95% CI 42.1-51.5) for agranulocytosis; Se 88.2% (95% CI 63.6-98.5) and PPV 34.1% (95% CI 20.5-49.9) for demyelination; Se 94.2% (95% CI 84.1-98.8) and PPV 74.2% (95% CI 62.0-84.2) for osteonecrosis; and Se 75.1% (95% CI 69.0-80.6) and PPV 87.8% (95% CI 82.3-92.0) for psychosis. Results obtained using the broad search were similar except for PPV concerning osteonecrosis (52.7% [95% CI 42.1-63.1]) and psychosis (61.4% [95% CI 55.7-66.8]). For all selected SMQs, Sp and NPV were greater than 98% for both narrow and broad searches. CONCLUSION: Heterogeneous performance of SMQs for case retrieval was found and seems to be related to the characteristics of the condition of interest. It could therefore be expected that for other SMQs, performance may be affected in the same manner.